Forming a new government is not easy

 The Prachanda-Madhav group has three options

Kathmandu. 

The day after the Supreme Court overturned his decision to dissolve the House of Representatives (Parliament), Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli challenged Prachanda-Madhav from a public forum, saying, "Some of my brothers fought for our victory. I don't know if he won. Let's see what they get by sweetening their mouths. I think you will resign from tomorrow. '

This indicates that Prime Minister Oli is not in favor of resigning. According to leaders, Oli made the remarks at a meeting of his group's standing committee on Wednesday morning.

Political analyst Krishna Khanal, on the other hand, said that Prime Minister Oli should have resigned on moral grounds as soon as the Supreme Court ruled. "If there was to be real morality and political sincerity, Oliji should have resigned as soon as the verdict was announced last evening,".

Most of the political parties, including the Prachanda-Madhav faction of the CPN (Maoist), have said that Prime Minister Oli should resign immediately for a smooth political solution.

The knot of forming a new government

 If he does not resign, Prime Minister Oli's departure and the formation of a new government will not be easy. Leaders of the Prachanda-Madhav group also accept this. One leader said, "Now we are discussing how to move forward."

 

According to leaders, there are three options for forming a new government if Prime Minister Oli does not resign.

First: Waiting for the Election Commission's decision on party split

The Prachanda-Madhav faction, which has a majority of central members and MPs in the CPN (Maoist), has filed a petition with the Election Commission on January 6, claiming that they are official. However, the commission has not taken any action in this regard so far.

Awaiting the Supreme Court's decision on the dissolution of parliament, the commission can now pronounce its verdict on the Prachanda-Madhav group's claim. If the commission decides to allow the Prachanda-Madhav faction to form another party by giving the CPN (Maoist) the upper hand, then Prime Minister Oli should take a vote of confidence as soon as the parliamentary session begins. And, without a majority, the government automatically collapses.

Leaders of the Prachanda-Madhav group say that the commission is expected to take a decision in half a day. The leaders also visited the commission office on Wednesday to find out. However, Commission sources claim that there is little possibility of immediate decision on the issue of authorization. Commission officials have argued that it may take 60/65 days for this.

Second option: Parliamentary party takes action against Oli

If the Election Commission does not formalize the party split of the ruling CPN (Maoist), the Prachanda-Madhav faction will have the option of taking action against Oli from the parliamentary party leader and electing another leader.

However, some have claimed that Prachanda was earlier elected as the leader of the parliamentary party by removing Oli. However, some jurists have argued that the process of removing Oli from the post of parliamentary party leader should be resumed as the commission did not give legitimacy to the party split and the decision taken when there was no parliament would not give legitimacy.

For this process, the CPN (Maoist) has to proceed as per the constitution of the parliamentary party. In doing so, a quarter of the members may file a no-confidence motion against the party leader, saying they do not trust the party leader. There is a provision in the constitution of the CPN-MP that the deputy leader should convene a meeting of the party within 15 days. Then the party leader should take a vote of confidence. If there is no majority, he will automatically resign.

According to Prachanda-Madhav group leaders, they have a majority in the CPN (Maoist) parliamentary party. But this option is not easy to go. The party is politically divided and Oli has been removed from the post of chairman and party leader. Party deputy leader Subash Chandra Nemwang is also in the Oli group. One of the leaders said, "It is not easy for us to file a petition saying that we do not have a vote of confidence considering KP Oli as the leader of the party."

Looking at the arithmetic of the CPN-MP, out of 172 MPs in the House of Representatives (excluding the Speaker and the late Sanu Shiva), 91 belong to the Prachanda-Madhav faction and 81 to the Oli faction. One vote of the Left group is neutral while independent MP Chak Bahadur Lama is in favor of Prachanda-Madhav. Of the 50 CPN (Maoist) MPs in the National Assembly, 23 are open in the Prachanda-Madhav group.

(Subtracting the chairperson and vice-chairperson of the National Assembly reduces the number of CPN MPs to 48)

As there are MPs from both the houses in the parliamentary party, the total number of votes cast by the CPN-MP will be 220. Of these, 111 votes are needed to remove Oli. Looking at the arithmetic so far, the Prachanda-Madhav faction has an average of 114 votes. However, the group's leaders claim that more Oli MPs will come to them.

Third option: No-confidence motion in Parliament

If the Election Commission does not decide on the legitimacy dispute and does not choose to remove the leader from the parliamentary party as per the constitution, then the Prachanda-Madhav group will have a third option, to file a no-confidence motion directly against the Prime Minister in Parliament.

A no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Oli was also filed in the Parliament Secretariat on December 19. However, the legitimacy of the no-confidence motion, which was registered in the absence of parliament, is in question. If the Parliament Secretariat does not recognize it, a new no-confidence motion must be filed against the Prime Minister.

A quarter of the parliamentarians of the CPN-Prachanda-Madhav group or any other party in the parliament can file a no-confidence motion in accordance with Article 100, Clause 4 of the Constitution. And, if that passes, the prime minister will automatically resign.

 

Then the government formation process begins.

Experts in the constitution say that the parliament can then start the process of forming a new government. According to Article 100, Clause 5 of the Constitution, when registering a no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister, the name of the future Prime Minister should also be proposed If a no-confidence motion is passed against the prime minister, the president must appoint a new prime minister in accordance with Article 76.

Eventually, KP Oli's exit from the government will be formalized only after going through all these processes. All of this work may take months to complete. Probably with this in mind, Prime Minister Oli said in his speech on Wednesday, "Some of my brothers ate laddu! I don't know if he won. Let's see what they get by sweetening their mouths. '